10/15/2024

Support for Donald Trump in the race for the U.S. presidency has reached an all-time high since Kamala Harris took over from Joe Biden as the Democratic candidate.

Trump is currently leading Harris by 13% in Polymarket’s prediction market for the next U.S. president, marking the largest gap since Harris became the official Democratic candidate at the end of July.

Following a relatively even race between the two candidates in early August—during which Harris gained traction with endorsements from public figures like singer Taylor Swift—Trump began to pull ahead in mid-September.

By early October, Trump held a significant rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, a location tied to an assassination attempt he survived in July. At the rally, Trump received a public endorsement from billionaire Elon Musk, who appeared on stage to energize the crowd.

On Musk’s social media platform, X, he also emphasized that the prediction rates on Polymarket are more reliable than traditional media polls because real money is involved in the bets.

As of now, the market value predicting the outcome of the U.S. presidential election on Polymarket has surpassed $1.6 billion, an increase of $600 million in just three weeks.

Interestingly, a Polymarket investor known as Fredi9999 purchased an additional 7 million shares betting on Trump’s victory last week, doubling their position to a current value of $7.8 million. This user has so far earned nearly half a million dollars in profit from their predictions.

However, a recent report indicates that most investors on Polymarket are facing losses, with only around 2,000 users showing profits of $1,000 or more.